不能说的秘密

‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

一 |     暖心帮扶促交流          携手共育同前行          为教育品牌提升蓄能          为促进学前教育的均衡发展，充分发挥优质教育的辐射引领作用，助力实现跨区域的帮扶指导工作，我园于近日诚邀西安市第二保育院“名校+”教育联合体院级领导及骨干教师入园开展交流指导活动。

二 |          自评系统线上指导           为持续深入落实《幼儿园保育教育质量评估指南》理念与精神，明晰评估方向，航空一幼作为评估样本园邀请指导专家郭茜院长进行了线上评估指导，郭院长围绕《评估指南》中的五大指标和大家进行了重温，并结合《自评手册》考查要点和自评系统的操作流程，带领中层行政人员进行了有针对性的学习。    

    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

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三 |          食堂管理经验交流          为加强和提高我园食堂管理工作，不断提升管理水平和服务品质，更好地保障师幼饮食健康安全。我园特邀后勤副院长赵文英开展食堂管理经验指导交流活动。         赵院长结合近期教育部办公厅关于印发《中小学校园食品安全和膳食经费管理工作指引》以及陕西省教育厅《关于在全省推广实施学校食堂食品安全“十统一六到位”管理模式的通知》文件精神进行政策解读，深入食堂进行现场指导，同时对我园食堂的各类档案资料进行详细的查阅，并提出了可行性的意见和建议。                   家长学校专题培训          为帮助家长进一步了解幼儿园的办园理念及课程建设，明晰孩子的身心发展规律，科学有效地开展幼儿教育，加强幼儿园与家庭之间的积极交流、密切联系，航空一幼邀请西安市第二保育院的优秀班主任白桦老师开展家长学校专题讲座。          白老师专业且接地气的专题讲座，帮家长进一步明晰了家园共育的重要性和有效的家园沟通策略，尤其通过生动的案例剖析了不同年龄段孩子的心理成长特点，给家长们科学育儿提供了有力依据。                             代表委员共话教育           为充分发挥党代表、人大代表和政协委员参政议政、服务群众、协调监督作用，提升对幼儿园办学的参与度，推进幼儿园保育教育质量，航空一幼特邀第十四届全国人大代表、陕西省第十四届人大代表白桦老师开展“两代表一委员”共话教育交流座谈活动。          座谈会上，白老师结合自己工作实际，现场解答教师的疑问，并带领全体党员教师学习领会《习近平总书记关于全面深化改革的一系列新思想、新观点、新论断和党的二十届三中全会精神》的文件精神，近距离感受党领导下的教育发展变革，共话学前教育高质量发展新篇章。                   专家引领、启迪思维，研训并行、笃行致远。

四 | 此次入园指导是对“名校+”教育联合体协同发展、共享资源的一次实践和检验。我园将以此次入园指导为契机，认真梳理专家的意见和建议，在探索中创新、在研究中提升，形成新路径、新方法，扎实做好各项工作，不断提高园所保育教育质量！          「END」          【图文】 婉婷          【编辑】 婉婷          【校对】灵儿          【终审】暖阳。

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Published on:21:25:51