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这种药的流通不能解决经营者的收入“焦虑症”_我的网站

一 |     According to Odinga, Deputy President William Ruto’s victory in the August 9 election for Kenya’s next president was a “travesty” and a “parody” with “many flaws." The official tally was extremely close, with Ruto claiming 50.5% of the vote and winning by just 233,000 ballots. However, according to the majority of Kenya’s election commission, the official tallies betray the rigging of the vote, which add up to 100.1%.,The East African state’s high court is tasked with reviewing elections, and will have 14 days to decide if there will be a new vote or if Ruto’s victory will stand.,The dispute has provoked new violence as protesters took to the streets and police unleashed tear gas and other weapons against the demonstrators.,Odinga is a longtime veteran of Kenyan politics, having run in numerous presidential races and participated in the struggle for multiparty democracy during the years of President Daniel arap Moi’s dictatorship. Since 2013, he has been recognized as the leader of the Kenyan opposition, although his longtime rival, outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, has endorsed his 2022 campaign.,He made a similar appeal after the August 2017 presidential election, which Kenyatta won with 54% of the vote as compared to Odinga’s 45%. The Supreme Court agreed with Odinga that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEBC) database had been hacked and the results falsified, voided the results, and ordered a new election held within two months, which Kenyatta also won.,‘The Mystery’,Odinga was born in 1945 in Maseno, a suburb of Kisumu, Kenya’s third largest city. His father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was a prominent Luo chieftain who fought for Kenyan independence from the British Empire and was its first vice president following independence in 1963. Raila Odinga was educated in East Germany and ran an important gas cylinder manufacturing company in Kenya before entering the civil service.,© Dutch National ArchiveKenyan President Daniel arap Moi at a press conference in The Hague, Netherlands, on 21 June 1979.Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi at a press conference in The Hague, Netherlands, on 21 June 1979.© Dutch National Archive,In 1982, he was jailed along with numerous others after he was accused of being one of the ringleaders of an attempted military coup of President Daniel arap Moi, a Western-aligned Cold Warrior who never fully united the country following the death of his predecessor and Kenya’s first president, Jomo Kenyatta. Odinga was declared a traitor and spent the next six years in prison. He was released in February 1988 and re-arrested six months later for agitating for a multiparty political system. He was released again in 1989, arrested again in 1990, and released again in 1991, at that point fleeing abroad to Norway.,While he was in prison, Odinga earned the nickname “Agwambo,” which in his native Luo language means “The Mystery” or “The Unpredictable,” because of how afraid of him Moi’s government seemed to be.,Odinga returned the following year to participate in the country’s first multiparty elections, called after Moi caved to internal and Western pressure. Odinga joined his father’s Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) movement, became its vice chairman, and won a seat in parliament. Moi won the election and retained the presidency.,Political Jockeying in the New Democracy,In 1997, Odinga ran against Moi but came in third place, behind Moi, who won again, and Moi’s former vice president, Mwai Kibaki, who took second place. Afterwards, Odinga switched sides and threw his weight behind Moi, even merging his own National Development Party (NDP) with Moi’s Kenyan African National Union (KANU) to form New KANU. It won him a job as Moi’s energy minister.,However, the deal didn’t win Moi’s endorsement, and he backed Uhuru Kenyatta, a political neophyte and son of Jomo Kenyatta, in 2002, when he could not run again due to term limits. This was seen as a slight against movement veterans, who left New KANU in droves and formed the Liberal Democratic Party, led by Odinga, who threw his weight behind Kibaki.,However, Odinga’s loyalties changed once again after Kibaki won in 2002. Kibaki submitted a draft for a new constitution in 2005, which was seen as weakening regional and local government at the expense of a strengthened executive. Odinga led a successful “no” campaign ahead of the referendum, which roundly rejected the proposed constitution. He formed a new party, the ODM, following this split with Kibaki.,© AFP 2022 / SIMON MAINAKenyan police officers keep vigil outside the Supreme Court in Nairobi. File photoKenyan police officers keep vigil outside the Supreme Court in Nairobi. File photo© AFP 2022 / SIMON MAINA,In 2007, Odinga accused Kibaki of winning by withholding identity cards for voters in opposition strongholds, and rejected the results of the election, which were ironically almost exactly the same number of votes that Ruto has won by: 232,000. In the two months that followed, violence swept the country and more than 1,000 people died. The army was required to restore order, and the violence was defused after Odinga and Kibaki reached a power-sharing agreement by which Odinga would hold the revived office of prime minister.,Odinga also ran against Kenyatta in the 2013 and 2017 elections, alleging fraud and technological errors in both votes, with the second one resulting in the Supreme Court throwing out the results and calling a new election in October 2017. Odinga claimed the new election would not be free or fair, and boycotted the second vote, resulting in Kenyatta getting 98% of the vote.,Odinga declared himself the People’s President, rejecting Kenyatta’s victory, but the two appeared together on television in March 2018 and referred to themselves as “brothers” in a bid to reduce political tensions and avoid a repeat of the 2007 violence.。各种官方统计数据尚未公布，但各地区披露的信息显示，部分省市电信业总体呈负增长。

二 | 据互联网开放频道未经证实的八卦消息，最近，一家大象运营商的一些省级公司已经开始为银行贷款支付工资。

三 | 在交通业务已成为电信行业最大的收入来源的情况下，交通能否解决运营商的收入焦虑？1。

四 | 2019年电信行业形势如何？去年底，工信部在北京召开了2019年全国工信大会，明确了5G商务的部署、提速和降费，对电信行业至关重要。从各种开放渠道来看，我们还没有收到关于2019年电信行业具体业务发展趋势的官方预测。但是我们可以从下面的信息中来看看这只美洲豹。

五 | 广东省交通管理局最近在2019年召开工作会议，提出了2019年行业发展目标：电信业务总量预计达到13576亿元，同比增长80%；电信业务收入1800亿元，同比增长同比增长4%；规模以上增值电信企业收入3364亿元，同比增长18%；固定宽带用户3880万户，光接入用户3650万户，超过5000万用户占92%，超过1亿用户占80%，IPTV用户占80%。S超过2200万，4K用户超过1900万。广东省的经济地位和经济活动是不言而喻的，广东省通信产业在全国的地位和影响也是不言而喻的。电信业的兴衰与地方经济的发展和活动密切相关。作为全国通信产业的主导者，广东省的产值指标即使不在前十位，也要高于全国平均水平。广东省交通厅预计2019年电信业务总量将增长80%，电信业务收入将同比增长4%。因此，上述两个增长率在全国的平均水平应低于或至少不高于广东省的指标。此外，业务量的80%同比增长能否支持其业务收入4%同比增长的目标？我们可以从2018年的数据中得出一个总体结论。2018年1-11月，我国电信业务总量完成57844亿元，同比增长13.9.2%，电信业务总收入完成11981亿元，同比增长2.9%。显然，2018年业务量同比增长近140%，仅同比增长2.9%。

六 | 此外，监管部门已经明确表示，2019年，他们将继续提高速度和降低收费，因此我们无法推测广东是否能够实现预期。

七 | 但从国家角度看，结合2018年的实际经验，电信行业如果同时依赖80%的业务增长，将很难支持2019年4%的业务收入增长。交通服务贡献了电信业近一半的收入。根据工信部去年11月底发布的数据，可以看出，去年前11个月，移动通信业务累计收入841.7亿元，比上年增长0.5%，占电信业务收入的70.3%。电子商务；同期，移动数据和移动互联网业务累计收入5554元。移动数据和移动互联网业务收入占电信业务收入的46.4%，占总收入的近一半。根据以上数据，我们还可以知道，移动数据和移动互联网业务收入占移动通信业务收入的66%。总的来说，在电信业务收入的比重和移动通信业务收入的比重中，流量是贡献最大的业务。

八 | 从整个行业的角度来看，交通业务确实发挥了关键作用。

九 | 但是，针对不同企业的经营者，也会存在差异。根据去年上半年公布的数据，只有中国移动的交通收入占50%以上。尽管中国联通和中国电信仍有很长的路要走，以弥补其一半的收入来自交通服务，他们的交通服务也贡献了最大的收入，从每个单一的业务。具体数据见下表。然而，通信单价的持续下跌和通信业务总量的不充分增长，必然会给电信行业带来巨大的收入增长压力，尤其是中国移动，它拥有最高的流量收入比。第三，2019年的关键词应该是“减负”和“调整”。虽然“提速降费”的监管政策明确了2018年降费的底线，但极大地提高了用户的准入意识，也促进了电信行业的快速降价。三大运营商在“吃角子老虎”的概念的影响下，为了获得增量用户规模，突破了人口规模和自然增长率的限制，在几乎不考虑质量的情况下，依靠各种低价格、无底线地开发大量低价值新用户。事实上，这有可能进一步增加运营商的负担，尤其是在交通管理方面。运营商依靠低成本“刷新”到“新”用户中，新身份证用户的实际比例并不高，因此除了对流量使用的贡献外，留存率和收入贡献都很低。经营者内部分析一再指出，拉动新产品的支出和成本不能带来相应的收益，这意味着或承认拉动新产品实际上是一种损失。根据我们的观察，大多数省市运营商已经认识到库存管理的重要性，并积极开展库存管理。但我们在这里也增加了两条建议：一是要敢于减负、挤水；二是要把用户规模（包括库存规模和净增长规模）转移到业务收入上，最好是财务口径的业务收入上。

十 | 没有人应该说电信行业没有水。挤出市场有利于行业的健康。节约获得“水分”的用户的资金，投资于股票用户的运营和新市场的培育。2019年将是5G商业的第一年。运营商面临着新的机遇，需要他们调整自己的非理性行为。

十一 | 依靠“账户收入”无法支撑5G的巨额投资建设，你可以仔细想想最近流传的网友们对“2G减3G补偿4G减5G”中提到的“中国联通5G投资战略”的无奈。第四，在电信行业的个体经营中，要把“一分为优”转变为“多点开花”。

十二 | 毫无疑问，交通起到了“一分为优”的作用。但正是这个关键的位置使操作人员越来越困惑。其中一个最大的原因是缺乏“多点开花”的业务连续性。交通、语音、宽带、短信和专线信息服务（包括物联网）已成为主要收入来源。

十三 | 在上述五大业务中，短信业务保持5%以上的正增长；宽带和专线收入总体保持正增长；语音业务呈现显著负增长，加上用户增长的影响，实际下降幅度超过15%。但我们都知道，事实上，语音的单价与交通的单价相比并没有明显下降。因此，语音服务收入贡献之所以大幅下降，是因为运营商为了追求流量，让微信等OTT服务取代语音。与其说语音业务不起作用，倒不如说运营商自愿放弃了语音业务。即使如此，运营商的预期流量在各种降价之后也没有出现。显然，运营商在2019年将面临巨大的压力，因为他们依靠交通“独立”。在没有为用户创造新价值的情况下，“多点开花”已成为必然的选择。也许这是让所有支持企业积极成长的最佳途径。即使语音业务不能实现正增长，减少其下降也是对整体收入增长的伪装支持。交通、短信、宽带、专线等业务收入也将保持正增长，“多点开花”主要集中在语音业务上，仍占收入比重较高。当然，物联网的发展已经非常迅速，也是未来重要的业务领域和现金奶牛。它需要在2019年得到支持。面对十几个省市收入大幅下降和行业负增长，交通运输无法解决运营商收入增长的焦虑。运营商还需要不断调整其经营理念，并相应地规划其收入路径。

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